With most of the counting done, ABC’s calling it 73 seats for LNP, and 72 seats for Labor. I’m going to ignore whatever’s The Australian and the SMH (and the other networks) are calling it, Antony Green’s the man to go to.

That leaves 1 Greens seat, and 4 independents. We’ll assume that the Greens will hold their word and side with Labor for 73/73. The magic number is 76, so either way, both parties will need to convince at least 3/4 of the independents to side with them.

Whilst the Coalition can claim they now have the higher number of seats, and a higher primary vote, ALP has its advantage of being the incumbent. Arguably JG is in a better position from the Govt to negotiate with indepedents, and she positively looks more Prime Ministerial when she gets to call her press conferences from the PM office. Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor all seem to have policies that are more inline with ALP’s, especially on the NBN. However it’ll be political suicide for these ex-National independents to side with Labor.

Things get more complicated in the Senate, where from July 2011, the Greens control the balance of power. This could be a problem should a minority Coalition government take place. Fielding’s threat earlier this week to ‘block supply’ (that is turn back budget bills) appears to be also nullified on July 1.

Recent developments, including Abbott agreeing to have his budget submitted to the Treasury for costing, and a NewsPoll indicating voters in the independents seats prefer Abbott forming Government, may have put the punters in favor of the Coalition. Centrebet is giving the Coalition $1.40, vs ALP’s $2.85. Earlier in the week it was neck and neck at $1.85 each.