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More than words?

Attended a talk by Dr Michael Fullilove from the Lowy's Institute at the NSW Trades Hall. Fulilove covered the US Presidential Primaries - his view on the Democratic race, McCain, the General Election, and what it means to Australia.

Summary of some of the points Fulilove made:

On Obama vs Clinton

Fulilove predicts Obama has a 80-90% of winning

Obama has the edge in fundraising and delegate count (states wise).

Obama has won more states, Clinton has won bigger states

Clinton's super delegates are 'leaking' to Obama, not the other way around

Obama has managed his campaign well. Re: Reverend Wright controversy vs Clinton's use of Bill, and the Bosnian sniper fire

General Election (Presidential Election on November 5)

Republican advantage (R)

Historically, the Republican Party has an 'in-built' advantage in the Electoral College. Red states are divisioned more proportionally

Conversely, Dems have a 'wasted majority' in Blue states like New York, California, and Illinois. They need more votes across the country

If Obama is the candidate, the Republican attack machine will have an easy time labelling Obama as a liberal candidate.

Repubs have a generic advantage if there is another major terrorist attack on US soil. This may scare voters into voting for McCain, who runs as the security candidate

Much of it depends on how the end of the Democratic primary pans out. If it ends in turmoil then the Repubs will have an advantage

Democratic Advantage(D)
Systemic Factors

81% of American citizens believe their country is on the wrong track - amongst a number of statistics that show general disdain for Bush and the direction the country is headed

The General Election will be about the ECONOMY and IRAQ

McCain will be seen as a continuation of Bush's policies in Iraq - re: McCain's comment on how long US will be in Iraq

Personal Factors (if Obama is the presumptive candidate)

Obama is 42. McCain is 72.

There will be many more 'senior' moments. re: McCain's misspeak on Sunni vs Shiia

Obama's political prowess - re: how he handled Reverend Wright controversy - it was not a typical politician's response of holding a press conference disassociating that person from their past or holding a 60 Minutes interview

What it means for Australia
(This section wasn't as strong as I hoped it might be)

The US and Australia share a strong historical diplomatic and military alliance

In terms of media, Australians are exposed to much of American culture through TV shows, movies, entertainment. This brings an emotional sense of attachment to Americans. People are constantly immersed in its culture and will develop favourites

Some may see McCain as being important for the US-Au Alliance

Dems may be seen in bad light if they pose a threat to the US-Au FTA

Rudd-Bush relationship is seen as much more business-like than the Rudd-Howard relationship

Bush commented that America and Australia share the same values and interests

Rudd's style of leadership will bring more independence to the alliance.

Speech makers vs anti-speech makers

Obama is running as a speech maker. He gained attention in 2004 when he made a stump speech (part 1 and part 2) at the Democratic Party convention

Clinton and McCain have both admitted they are not good orators. They have made a point that they are Do'ers and not Talkers.

This election will be about whether or not speech makers can win.

Other Random Points

Election 2000 - it looked like it didn't matter who won in terms of foreign policy. Bush ran as a moderate candidate and ended up being unilateral in approach to foreign policy.

Election 2004 - Kerry was seen as a romantic unilateralist. In the end it did not matter - Fulilove believes Bush became more moderate in his 2nd term.

There has been an internal proxy way in the Republican Party. Neocons (Cheney, Rumsfeld?) vs the pragmatics (Dr Rice).

Green Party candidate will not matter as much if Obama is the nominee - Obama already cover much of that vote

Obama will most likely pick a white governor with serious foreign experience as a VP

It is unlikely a dream ticket - Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama will eventualise

If Jeb Bush's last name wasn't Bush -he would be a likely VP candidate for the Repubs

It is unlikely McCain will pick Romney - too much personality conflict